Updated June 2026: One of the biggest weather stories of the year has arrived—El Niño is officially here. It’s one of the key climate signals we’ll be watching as we prepare our official Winter 2026–2027 Forecast.
We know—it’s summer. But the clues that shape winter begin appearing long before the leaves start to turn.
Those early signals include changing ocean temperatures, shifting winds high above Earth, and even natural cycles of the Sun that scientists continue to study for possible connections to long-term weather patterns.
At The Old Farmer’s Almanac, we watch these large-scale climate signals all year long. Along with our time-tested forecasting formula, they help us build the long-range weather predictions readers have trusted for generations.
El Niño Has Officially Returned
The biggest development so far is that El Niño is officially underway.
After months of warming ocean temperatures across the tropical Pacific, El Niño has developed and is expected to continue strengthening as we head toward winter.
So why does that matter?
Think of the Pacific Ocean as one of Earth’s most powerful weather engines. When its waters warm in just the right places, the jet stream—the fast-moving river of air that steers storms—often shifts its path. That change can influence where rain, snow, and colder air are most likely to travel across North America.
Because the jet stream plays such an important role in shaping winter weather, El Niño is one of the strongest climate signals forecasters watch. But it’s only one piece of the puzzle. Other factors—from activity on the Sun to changing ocean patterns—also help shape the season ahead.
The Sun Is Still Playing Its Part
The Sun remains fairly active. We keep an eye on activity on the Sun because it’s one of several natural patterns we monitor as we prepare our long-range forecasts. Solar Cycle 25 is now past its peak, but sunspot activity remains relatively elevated.
Historically, high levels of solar activity have been associated with warmer temperatures, on average, although it’s only one of many factors that help shape the seasons.
Oceans Don’t Just Make Waves—they Help Steer Storms
Weather doesn’t happen in isolation.
Meteorologists are also watching two long-term ocean patterns—one in the Atlantic and one in the Pacific—that can influence storm tracks, temperatures, and how moisture is distributed across North America. Scientists call them the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).
Another important influence comes from the Indian Ocean. There is a pattern known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which can influence the Pacific jet stream and, in turn, affect winter storm tracks.
Together, these ocean patterns can influence how much moisture reaches winter storms and where those storms are most likely to develop. Sometimes they help fuel coastal systems. Other times they influence how active—or how quiet—a season becomes.
Don’t Forget About the Polar Vortex
Yes, the polar vortex is still something we’re watching. Despite the headlines it often receives, the polar vortex isn’t a storm. It’s a large pool of cold Arctic air that usually stays locked near the North Pole.
Every so often, that circulation weakens or shifts. When it does, colder Arctic air can spill farther south, bringing outbreaks of wintry weather to parts of the United States.
One clue forecasters watch is a band of high-altitude winds that circles the equator. Scientists call this pattern the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Changes in these winds can sometimes influence the behavior of the polar vortex later in the season.
Whether that happens this winter remains one of the many questions we’ll continue monitoring over the months ahead.
Looking at the Whole Picture
Right now, El Niño is the clearest early clue for Winter 2026–2027. But it’s not the only one. As we move toward fall, we’ll continue tracking El Niño, longer-term ocean patterns in the Atlantic and Pacific, activity on the Sun, upper-atmosphere winds, and other large-scale climate signals that help shape winter weather.
Long-range forecasting is built from all of these influences taken together—and at The Old Farmer’s Almanac, that blend of science and experience is what guides our winter outlook each year.
Stay Tuned for Our Official Winter Forecast
The full Winter 2026–2027 outlook, along with our complete 12-month weather forecast, will appear in The 2027 Old Farmer’s Almanac. It’s where we share the season in greater detail—month by month, region by region.
Preorder your copy now to receive the 2027 edition as soon as it’s released.
Until then, we’ll continue updating this page as nature reveals more about the season ahead.
Winter may still be months away—but the forecast has already begun.
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