Canada Winter Forecast and Map for 2024–2025
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The Famer's Almanac is Always way off.. I don't ever remember the predictions being accurate.. even once for where I live. Mind boggling that this hasn't been revamped to actually become somewhat accurate one day
You never have a lot to say about Northern Ontario from Nipigon, Ontario to Thunder Bay, Ontario to Kenora. There's a lot of traffic on the highways in the winter. Why do you just skim over our area?
Hello, Teresa, thank you for writing to The Old Farmer’s Almanac. The area you describe is Southern Ontario. For that region we are forecasting a cold, snowy winter as can be seen on this map of our long-range weather predictions for Canada and in the article on this page. We are forecasting that same weather for almost all of Ontario, too, except for the northernmost parts of the province (on Hudson Bay). We are calling for this region to be mild and dry this winter. This is indicated in the map, but not broken out in the article. Safe travels, The Editors.
The map and your forecast did not agree for Southern Ontario. It seems rather incomplete.
Hi, Liane,
The map tells what is going on in a very general sense, and covers all of Canada, unlike the regional and daily summaries, which focus on the areas outlined on the Weather Regions map (page 210 of the print edition). For example, on the Canada Winter Forecast map, we see that most of Southern Ontario is predicted to be colder and snowier than average, although the southeastern parts are expected to be milder and drier than average (as is the area around the Hudson Bay, but that is not part of our “Southern Ontario” predictions).
The general summary (aka General Weather Report and Forecast, found on page 97 of the print edition) takes into account all regional summaries for Canada. The general summary for winter 2024–25 indicates that we expect the winter to be seasonal or colder than usual in areas including Southern Ontario. Precipitation is predicted to be near to above normal overall—when averaging areas within each entire province; for example, even though there is an area of dry in the southeastern Ontario on the map, the greatest portion of the province is predicted to have above-normal precipitation, as well as higher than average snowfall. We expect snow to be near to below normal, except in western Ontario (and parts of the Prairies)—where it will be above normal. In other words, for Southern Ontario, we are predicting the western part to be snowier than normal, and the (south)easternmost part to be near to below normal.
For winter, each regional summary averages the forecast dailies for November through March. For the Southern Ontario regional summary, we predict that the winter will be colder than normal, with above-average precipitation. Snowfall will be below average in the east and above average in the west. This agrees with the map and general summary. (“East” in this case is the southeastern area, such as around Toronto, Barrie, London, and Parry Sound.) In this case, the temperature and precipitation sections of the regional forecast were not broken down into east/west; instead, the overall averages were taken (colder temps and above-average precipitation) for the entire area of Southern Ontario. The map, however, breaks it down into separate sections.
Hope this helps! Thank you for your interest in The Old Farmer’s Almanac!
Hi there,
I am not really following how are you defining 'Southern Ontario.' There is mention in one of the comments as Kenora being Southern Ontario. Isn't Southern Ontario reserved for Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area? It is not really clear what the forecast is for this specific area and what 'snowy and colder' in November means- can you clarify?
It is very hard to believe or understand, but the weather difference that happens in Canada and the U.S. is at times extremely different. It amazes me at times how something so close can be so far, but it has been seen and does happens. In parts of the U.S. there could be experiences of alot of tornadoes, but in Canada it is not something that is seen as much. Yes it is crazy but that the weather for you. ...but I do completely understand what you are saying about the "fine line"
I question how the weather is expected to abruptly change at the border between Canada and the USA. There should be some continuity over that invisible line if you want either side to believe in your forecasts.
Hi Diane,
Thank you for your query. You are right that the weather should not abruptly change once it hits the border between the U.S. and Canada and it in fact does not. What does change is how the forecast can be represented by the area and how it compares to the averages.
The data used when putting together our forecasts differs on either side of the U.S.–Canada border, as the normals information for our U.S. forecasts is taken from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NOAA), while our Canadian forecasts draw from normals data collected by Environment and Climate Change Canada. So not only are the data sets put out by two different meteorological agencies for locations in each region, they also span two different sets of time—the U.S. data spans the 30-year period from 1991–2020, while Canadian data is from 1981–2010 (their data is currently being updated from the 2020 collection).
Given how normals vary widely from location to location, it is possible for areas bordering each other to have very different forecasts, which can also be seen on each map even within a specific region.
Hopefully that clears up any confusion.
