Winter may still be months away, but the patterns that help shape 2026–2027 winter weather are already beginning to develop. At The Old Farmer’s Almanac, we monitor large-scale climate signals around the world—from ocean temperatures to solar activity—to help build our annual long-range forecasts.
While it’s too early to release the official forecast, several large-scale climate patterns are already taking shape. Some signals point toward a generally milder overall winter pattern in many areas. Others could still influence storm tracks and periods of active winter weather.
The Climate Patterns Shaping the 2026–2027 Winter Forecast
Solar Cycle 25 Remains Active After Recent Peak
The Sun goes through natural activity cycles that rise and fall over time. We are currently in Solar Cycle 25, which has recently passed its most active phase, although sunspot levels remain relatively high.
Scientists continue to study how solar activity may influence long-term climate and weather patterns. While the connection is complex, solar cycles remain one of many factors meteorologists watch when looking at long-range weather trends.
El Niño Is Expected to Develop Before Winter
Last winter’s La Niña pattern has weakened, and we are now watching for a transition toward El Niño conditions during the upcoming winter season.
El Niño and La Niña are part of a natural climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean known as ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation). Changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures can influence the jet stream—a fast-moving current of air high in the atmosphere that helps guide storms across North America.
During many El Niño winters, the Pacific jet stream shifts farther south, often leading to wetter and stormier conditions across parts of the southern United States. Increased moisture can also contribute to more active winter weather in colder regions when cold air is in place.
However, no two El Niño or La Niña events are exactly alike. These climate patterns do not guarantee a specific type of winter, but they can shift the odds toward certain weather patterns in different regions
Ocean Temperatures Can Influence Storm Tracks
Meteorologists are also monitoring longer-term ocean patterns in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
One pattern, called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), remains in a warm phase. Another, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), appears to be gradually weakening from its cooler phase.
Together, these ocean patterns can influence where winter storms develop and how they move across North America. A warmer Atlantic Ocean can also provide extra moisture and energy for East Coast storm systems. When colder air is in place, that added moisture can sometimes help fuel coastal snowstorms and Nor’easters.
At the same time, Pacific Ocean patterns can influence how mild or stormy conditions become across other parts of the country. Because these climate signals interact with one another, meteorologists continue monitoring how they evolve as winter approaches.
The Polar Vortex Is Still Important
We are also monitoring the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), a regular pattern of shifting winds high above the equator in the stratosphere.
Although these winds occur far above Earth’s surface, they can sometimes influence larger atmospheric patterns, including the behavior of the polar vortex—a large area of cold air that normally circulates around the Arctic.
When the polar vortex weakens or shifts position, colder air can occasionally move farther south into parts of the United States. This can lead to periods of colder temperatures and more active winter weather in some regions, even during winters that may otherwise average near or above normal overall,
Stay Tuned for the Official Winter Forecast
At The Old Farmer’s Almanac, we’ll continue monitoring how these climate patterns evolve in the months ahead.
Even subtle shifts in ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions can influence winter weather across North America.
The complete long-range weather predictions for Winter 2026–2027 (and a full 12 months) will appear in The 2027 Old Farmer’s Almanac. Preorder your copy now to receive it as soon as it’s released:
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