What Weather Will This Year Bring?
As the clock hits midnight on New Year’s Eve, many of us reflect on the past year while dreaming of the year ahead. Here at the Almanac, our thoughts often turn to the WEATHER! Although we rely on our long-range forecasts, we also enjoy the tradition of looking to weather folklore. Enjoy this New Year’s lore and see if it rings true!
New Year’s Weather Folklore
In particular, weather folklore often looks to the wind. Try this. Step outside as the sun sets on New Year’s Eve. Feel the wind and recite:
If New Year’s Eve the wind blows south
It betokens warmth and growth.
If west, much milk and fish in the sea.
If north, cold and storms there will be.
If east, the trees will bear much fruit.
If north east, then flee it, man and brute.
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Then throw your New Year wishes to the wind!
Others believed the time to check out the wind was at sunrise on New Year’s Day, but it would be hard to wake up at dawn if you had any fun the night before!
(If you forgot to check the wind, don’t worry.)
First 12 Days of January
Some believe that the first 12 days of January can predict the weather for the entire year!
So, the weather on the first, good or bad, will reflect how January will feel. The second-day forecasts February, the third forecasts March, and so on.
You may have also heard: If there is thunder in January, it will snow seven days later. And fog in January brings a wet spring.
Forecasting by the Onion
My favorite is the onion method for predicting the weather for the year: Get twelve onions. From 11:00 pm to midnight on New Year’s Eve, remove the tops and create a hollow in the middle.
Get out your compass and line the onions in an east-west orientation. Place an equal amount of salt in each depression. (Then, explain to your fellow partiers why you smell like an onion!)
Don’t look at the vegetables until the next morning. The salt has dissolved to varying degrees in each onion. The more water in each onion, the wetter the corresponding month will be in the coming year. After this, carefully add potatoes and other root veggies, rub with olive oil and spices, and bake.
Whether the onions are right or wrong, you’ll have a lovely New Year’s Day feast of roasted veggies.
But Do They Really Work?
Oddly enough, the majority of weather superstitions cited here do have a scientific basis in fact. But that doesn’t mean their accuracy rates are much to boast about… However, if they didn’t work at all, people wouldn’t have repeated and remembered them for so long.
Of course, you can also check this year’s Almanac forecast as a “human” point of reference. See our extended weather forecasts—or pick up a copy of The 2024 Old Farmer’s Almanac for more!
More Weather Folklore
Looking for more winter weather folklore? Check out:
James J. Garriss
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Well when someone asks me about what the weather is going to be the next day or week I simply tell them this, “There’s only 2 people who know what the weather is going to be, God and Mother Nature and they’re both
‘?!$$ed’ off at us for what we’ve done to the planet.’
Think about it and you tell me that the weather pattern 20 or 30 years ago is the same today. I know the monsoons in the southwest are completely different.
I am not wasting that many onions to find out!!!
I think a lot of the accuracy of weather lore depends on *where* such sayings originated. For instance, the old "red sky at morning" poem was fairly accurate when I lived in New England, but doesn't mean much down South, where red clay in the soil means almost ALL sunrises and sunsets produce a red sky. ;D
My ex-husband was in the Navy and said when they were at sea they dreaded a red sky at morning because ("Red sky in the morning, people take warning".) because that meant they would be encountering some stormy seas. (His ship's captain received the equivalent of a court martial because he endangered the ship and its' crew; what was left of the flag of the USS Trenton, LPD-14, was displayed on the ship aftewards; at least a third of it had been shredded and blown away in the storm that led to the man's court martial.
What about if there's no wind eve or day?
Good question! Unfortunately, the above weather lore does not address that scenario. However, there is another proverb that says (for any date) “No weather is ill, / If the wind be still.”
Hi there! I'm doing research on the ruling days for my own personal benefit. I grew up hearing about them and how they predicted the weather for the upcoming year, but never paid enough attention and now wish I had. Do you have information on the Ruling Days? I believe they may have originated in Scotland but I always heard them linked to Appalachia. I'd love to hear anything you have to say on the subject.
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My daddy-in-law got me started years ago doing this, except sometimes I forget to write it down. then it's a surprise!
