Extended, long-range forecast from The Old Farmer's Almanac
Bob Smerbeck & Brian Thompson, Old Farmer’s Almanac meteorologists
November 21, 2023
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Will the record-breaking heat let up? Take a look at our new fall weather maps for The Old Farmer’s Almanac, covering temperatures and precipitation. Plus, we provide your regional fall forecast highlights for the U.S. and Canada.
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Don’t get those sweaters out yet. It looks as if The Old Farmer’s Almanac is predicting a warmer-than-normal autumn this year!
The good news: The temperatures won’t be as extreme as seen in the August forecast—which shows temperatures far above what’s typical. However, the temperatures will still be unseasonably warm in many areas, compared to past years.
The regions listed below will be warmer-than-average for this time of year:
Midwest: The Lower Lakes (region 6), Ohio Valley (7), the Heartland (10), and the Upper Midwest (9)
Southeast (4), Deep South (region 8), and Florida (5)
Texas-Oklahoma (11) and High Plains (12)
Pacific Southwest (16) and Desert Southwest (14)
The regions listed below will be cooler-than-average for this time of year:
Pacific Northwest (15)
Atlantic Corridor (2)
Both Florida and Hawaii will have average temperatures for this time of year compared to historical temperatures.
Our autumn-hued weather map provides the seasonal temperature outlook:
What about rainfall? For much of central U.S. (in orange on the map below), it should be a typical fall with average rainfall.
However, much of the U.S. along the West and East coasts is predicted to experience below-average precipitation. This includes the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Deep South, California and Pacific states, and the Intermountain region.
While the below-average temperatures and rainfalls might translate to some pretty foliage in the Northeastern region, the lack of precipitation means that California and drought-sensitive regions will need to prepare ahead.
Hurricane season officially runs through November. We expect near-normal activity and the 2023 hurricane count to fall just a bit short of last year’s. See more hurricane predictions.
In Canada, autumn temperatures will be warmer than normal from southern Ontario (region 3) westward across the central and western provinces to the Pacific Coast and near to below normal elsewhere.
Rainfall will be below normal in Atlantic Canada (region 1) and southern Quebec (region 2) and from western Ontario into the eastern Prairies (region 4) and near to above normal elsewhere.
September 2023 Forecast
Throughout the month of September, we expect cool weather across the northeastern U.S., where there could be some early crispness in the air. Meanwhile, a warmer-than-average month will lead to a summerlike feel across the Southeast. Near- or above-average temperatures are likely from the Midwest through the Plains. The Northwest, Desert Southwest, and Intermountain West will be cooler than average, while California, Alaska, and Hawaii will be on the warmer side. Cooler-than-average conditions are expected across much of Canada, although the Yukon and Northwest Territories will lean toward the milder side.
September looks like it will be a dry month from the Ohio Valley through the eastern U.S. We’re expecting a wetter-than-normal month from the Great Lakes back through the Upper Midwest and northern Plains and from the Heartland down into the Deep South. Early-season wet weather will dampen the Pacific Northwest, with California’s precipitation amounts running closer to average. Southern Alaska and Hawaii will be on the dry side. Canada will be pretty wet in most areas, although Quebec and the eastern Prairies will have a better chance of being somewhat drier than other places.
October temperatures will be warmer than normal across the Northeast and Great Lakes and from the Midwest and Plains through the Rockies into the Pacific Southwest; elsewhere, they will be near- or cooler than normal.
Precipitation will be below normal in much of the country except for above-normal amounts across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Desert Southwest, and Hawaii. October temperatures will be above normal across much of Canada, while precipitation will average above normal in the western provinces and below normal elsewhere.
Throughout November, colder-than-normal weather is expected in northern New England. However, we do expect a warmer-than-normal month in much of the eastern third of the U.S. Temperatures will likely be near or below normal from the Upper Midwest to the northern Plains and over into the Rockies. November also looks to be a chillier-than-average month along the West Coast, while much of Alaska and Hawaii will be on the warmer side. Most of Canada will likely be on the colder side, with the best chances for near- to above-normal temperatures in southern parts of Ontario and in the Yukon.
We look for the month to be drier than average across the interior Northeast, while the I-95 corridor will be stormier. Above-normal precipitation is likely in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, western Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and Plains. The central Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast will also be on the wetter side, although much of Florida will be drier than usual. November will be on the wetter side from the Southwest up through the Rockies, while it will tend to be drier in the Pacific Northwest. In Canada, near- to below-average precipitation is expected from the Maritimes into Quebec and British Columbia. Above-normal precipitation looks likely from Ontario and the Prairies northward to the Yukon and Northwest Territories.