How Accurate is The Old Farmer’s Almanac’s Weather Forecast?

The 2026 Old Farmer’s Almanac (available everywhere on August 26, 2025!) features the below information along with temperature and precipitation forecasts versus actuals for representative cities in each region. 

How Accurate Is The Old Farmer’s Almanac Forecast Overall?

Although neither we nor any other forecasters have as yet gained sufficient insight into the mysteries of the universe to predict the weather with total accuracy, we correctly predict the weather about 80% of the time. 

Keep in mind that the way we measure long-range seasonal predictions is different than your daily weather meteorologist. The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts weather trends and events by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity. Our extended winter weather forecasts emphasize temperature and precipitation deviations from averages, or normals. These are based on 30-year statistical averages prepared by government meteorological agencies.

How Accurate Was the 2024–2025 Winter Forecast?

Overall, our accuracy rate in forecasting the direction of temperature departure for a representative city in each region was 88.9%.

• Our forecast for below-average temperatures was on the mark from the Southeast westward through the Appalachians and the Lower Lakes into the Ohio Valley
• Louisville and Indianapolis had their coldest January winters since 2014.
• In Savannah, it was the coldest January since 1981 and the ninth coldest winter on record. 

On average, the actual winter temperature results for the top cities differed from our forecasts by 0.4 degrees.

Our accuracy in forecasting the direction of precipitation departure from normal for a representative city in each region was 83.3%. 

• A once-in-a-generation storm on January 21 brought 7 to 9 inches of snow from Mobile (Ala.) to Pensacola (Fla.), while New Orleans (La.) received 8 inches. Because of this, our snowy forecast for the Southeast was accurate.
• Our snowy forecast in the southern Atlantic Corridor also came true, with above-average snowfall in Washington, D.C., and Richmond (Va.).
• Our forecast for below-average snowfall across much of the northern U.S. also proved to be largely correct.

This makes last winter’s total accuracy rate 86.1%, above our traditional average rate of 80%. 

Frequently Asked Questions

How Accurate Are The Old Farmer’s Almanac Weather Predictions?

On average, The Old Farmer’s Almanac weather predictions are 80% accurate.

How Does The Old Farmer’s Almanac Make Its Forecasts?

How do we make our long-range predictions? We derive our weather forecasts from a secret formula that was devised by the founder of this almanac, Robert B. Thomas, in 1792. Thomas believed that the weather on Earth was influenced by sunspots, which are magnetic storms on the surface of the Sun.

Some individuals doubt that the amount of energy emitted by the sun has any impact on the atmosphere, weather, and climate. However, we belong to the group that believes otherwise. We base our beliefs on the fields of solar science, which studies sunspots, climatology, which examines weather patterns, and meteorology, which focuses on the atmosphere.

Of course, our exact formula is proprietary. But also rest assured that the meteorological technology and methods are continually updated. While the forecasts are based on the same principles, we use the latest state-of-the-art satellite data, all the latest technology, and equipment. Read more about how The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts the weather.

What Does the 2025 Almanac Say About This Winter?

How cold and snowy will this winter be? For specifics on snowfall and temperatures in your region, pick up The 2026 Old Farmer’s Almanac—while copies are available!