How Accurate is The Old Farmer’s Almanac’s Weather Forecast?

The 2025 Old Farmer’s Almanac (available everywhere on August 29, 2024!) features the below information along with temperature and precipitation forecasts versus actuals for representative cities in each region. 

How Accurate Is The Old Farmer’s Almanac Forecast Overall?

Although neither we nor any other forecasters have as yet gained sufficient insight into the mysteries of the universe to predict the weather with total accuracy, we correctly predict the weather about 80% of the time. 

Keep in mind that the way we measure long-range seasonal predictions is different than your daily weather meteorologist. The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts weather trends and events by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity. Our extended winter weather forecasts emphasize temperature and precipitation deviations from averages, or normals. These are based on 30-year statistical averages prepared by government meteorological agencies.

How Accurate Was the 2023–2024 Winter Forecast?

Our accuracy in forecasting the direction of precipitation departure from normal for a representative city in each region was 83.3%. Our anomalous forecast for a very wet winter in the Atlantic Corridor was very accurate. 

Overall, our accuracy rate in forecasting the direction of temperature departure for a representative city in each region was 44.4%.

• Our warmer-than-normal temperature forecast was accurate along the East and Gulf Coast.
• Elsewhere, while a polar vortex did visit much of the country in mid-January, warmth dominated the weather from coast to coast.

This makes last winter’s total accuracy rate 64%, below our traditional average rate of 80%, a reflection of how abnormal recent weather patterns have been. 

Last winter was a season of snowfall extremes:

• Our forecast for above-normal snowfall was correct in portions of the Intermountain West, the mountains of California, and an area from the central Plains into the Tennessee Valley.
• Despite the abundance of precipitation in the Northeast, the constant warmth meant a lot more rain than snow, which itself led to below-normal snowfall
• Our snowy forecast for southern Alaska was indeed on target, as Anchorage had one of its snowiest winters on record, and Juneau saw its snowiest January ever— with more than 76 inches of snow in that month alone.

On average, our actual winter precipitation results for top cities differed from our forecasts by 0.44 inches.

How We Make Our Forecast

How do we make our long-range predictions? We derive our weather forecasts from a secret formula that was devised by the founder of this Almanac, Robert B. Thomas, in 1792. Thomas believed that weather on Earth was influenced by sunspots, which are magnetic storms on the surface of the Sun.

Some individuals doubt that the amount of energy emitted by the sun has any impact on the atmosphere, weather, and climate. However, we belong to the group that believes otherwise. We base our beliefs on the fields of solar science, which studies sunspots, climatology, which examines weather patterns, and meteorology, which focuses on the atmosphere.

Of course, our exact formula is proprietary. But also rest assured that the meteorological technology and methods are continually updated. While the forecasts are based on the same principles, we use the latest state-of-the-art satellite data, all the latest technology and equipment. Read more about how The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts the weather.

What Does the 2025 Almanac Say About This Winter?

How cold and snowy will this winter be? For specifics on snowfall and temperatures in your region, pick up The 2025 Old Farmer’s Almanac—while copies are available!