How Accurate Is The Old Farmer’s Almanac? See Our Forecast Results

How accurate is The Old Farmer’s Almanac? On average, we correctly predict the direction of seasonal temperature and precipitation departures about 80% of the time. Here’s how our 2025–2026 winter forecast compared with actual weather across the country.

The 2027 Old Farmer’s Almanac (available everywhere on September 1, 2026!) features the below information along with temperature and precipitation forecasts versus actuals for representative cities in each region. 

How Accurate Is The Old Farmer’s Almanac Forecast Overall?

Although neither we nor any other forecasters have as yet gained sufficient insight into the mysteries of the universe to predict the weather with total accuracy, we correctly predict the weather about 80% of the time. 

Keep in mind that the way we measure long-range seasonal predictions is different than your daily weather meteorologist. The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts weather trends and events by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity. Our extended winter weather forecasts emphasize temperature and precipitation deviations from averages, or normals. These are based on 30-year statistical averages prepared by government meteorological agencies.

How Accurate Was the 2025–2026 Winter Forecast?

• 🌡️ 83.3% Temperature
• 🌧️ 94.4% Precipitation
• ⭐ 88.9% Overall

Temperature Accuracy

Overall, our accuracy rate in forecasting the direction of temperature departure for a representative city in each region was 83.3%.

• Our forecast for below-average temperatures panned out across the Appalachians, Florida, and the Ohio Valley.
• The Northeast had their coldest winter since 2014.
• In Alaska, our warmer forecast bore out across the northern parts of the state.

On average, the actual winter temperature results for the top cities differed from our forecasts by 1.1 degrees.

Precipitation Accuracy

Our accuracy in forecasting the direction of precipitation departure from normal for a representative city in each region was 94.4%. 

• Our forecast for below-average snowfall across most of the country was correct, and above-average snowfall in the eastern Ohio Valley was also verified.
• Snowfall exceeded out predictions across portions of Alaska.
• We underestimated snowfall in the northern Atlantic Corridor from Boston through New Jersey.

Total Accuracy Rate

This makes last winter’s total accuracy rate 88.9%, above our traditional average rate of 80%. 

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are The Old Farmer’s Almanac weather predictions?

On average, The Old Farmer’s Almanac weather predictions are 80% accurate.

What does 80% accuracy mean?

An 80% accuracy rate means that, on average, The Old Farmer’s Almanac correctly predicts the direction of seasonal temperature and precipitation departures from normal about 80% of the time. It does not mean that every daily temperature or precipitation event is predicted correctly.

How does The Old Farmer’s Almanac make its forecasts?

We derive our weather forecasts from a secret formula that was devised by the founder of this almanac, Robert B. Thomas, in 1792. Thomas believed that the weather on Earth was influenced by sunspots, which are magnetic storms on the surface of the Sun.

Some individuals doubt that the amount of energy emitted by the Sun has any impact on the atmosphere, weather, and climate. However, we belong to the group that believes otherwise. We base our beliefs on the fields of solar science, which studies sunspots, climatology, which examines weather patterns, and meteorology, which focuses on the atmosphere.

Of course, our exact formula is proprietary. But also rest assured that the meteorological technology and methods are continually updated. While the forecasts are based on the same principles, we use the latest state-of-the-art satellite data, all the latest technology, and equipment. Read more about how The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts the weather.

What Does the 2027 Almanac Say About This Winter?

How cold and snowy will this winter be? For specifics on snowfall and temperatures in your region, pick up The 2027 Old Farmer’s Almanac—while copies are available!