We’re glad that you have found the Almanac’s forecasts useful! From what I understand from NOAA and elsewhere, experts are expecting the ENSO to be neutral throughout the Northern Hemisphere at least through the summer months, after which there is a slight chance of a La Nina taking over, although the chances are still more likely that neutral conditions will continue.
During a neutral ENSO state, it is harder to predict trends, as the patterns of a La Nina or El Nino are less prominent, allowing other influences to take over. In general, the trend would tend to be average rainfall for the summer in the Northeast, but that depends on what other factors are in play at the time. Consequently, there might be major variations in rainfall between areas of the Northeast, with some drier than normal and other places wetter than normal.
Thank you for your interest in The Old Farmer’s Almanac.
Hi, Emily,
We’re glad that you have found the Almanac’s forecasts useful! From what I understand from NOAA and elsewhere, experts are expecting the ENSO to be neutral throughout the Northern Hemisphere at least through the summer months, after which there is a slight chance of a La Nina taking over, although the chances are still more likely that neutral conditions will continue.
During a neutral ENSO state, it is harder to predict trends, as the patterns of a La Nina or El Nino are less prominent, allowing other influences to take over. In general, the trend would tend to be average rainfall for the summer in the Northeast, but that depends on what other factors are in play at the time. Consequently, there might be major variations in rainfall between areas of the Northeast, with some drier than normal and other places wetter than normal.
Thank you for your interest in The Old Farmer’s Almanac.
Best,
The Almanac Editors