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The solar cycle from 2010 to 2020, viewed from spacecraft.
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Dan Seaton/European Space Agency
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sunspots are supports to peak 2013?
I regard the solar cycle 24 is weak in terms of sunspots only. It is these that give us the extra UV and X-rays which affect climate. Of course, it may not be weaker in some other less important respects.
How can you possibly say that the solar cycle is weak? You report on the X flares (3), and fact that there has been 0 sun spotless days in'12 , or that people who live in high lat. say they have never seen such active and continuous auroras should convince you. also I live in MI and it has been the warmest, no snow, I can ever remember(not over yet I know). But if you still must convince yourself I have hard evidence. Just visit the solar dynamics observatory website-they have a cool tool-under the 'data' heading go to access more data then go to*LMSAL iSolsearch* you can use the tool to research any day or span of days to see all kinds of different data regarding the sun. Just compare Nov 2011-now with 2000-01, you will clearly see how cool this tool is and I hope in the April update you do not say WEAK!!!!
This solar cycle has actually been historically weak. While the sunspot counts may be good data for certain aspects or heliophysics, when it comes to actual activity coming from these regions, solar cycle 24 shares more in common with the Maunder Minimum than more active periods, as during the 1940's. The Maunder Minimum is named for the scientist who was observing it's onset - which began with sunspots diminishing and vanishing as they rotated to the earth-facing side of the solar disk. This has been the major feature of this cycle as well - no large, magnetically complex sunspot has made much noise on the earth side of the disk.
Now, the still-theoretical science studying how this affects weather is one of the most fascinating subjects there is -- it will make you think of the earth and the sun and their connection in a much different way. When we have weak solar activity with no strong flaring, the earth is being bombarded with fast solar wind from coronal hole streams, and our atmospher at all layers experiences a pushback -- quite literally, it shrinks, and the tension between layers leads to unusual phenomena. Closest to the ground, where the troposphere and statosphere are being pushed, the tops of thunderheads emit types of lightning called sprites, elves, fairies; which reveal a jellyfish-resembling network of glowing red/blue electric plasma high in the sky. They are truly an ominous sight, as are undulatus asperatus clouds - cloud formations that look like rough waves in an upside down sea of grey.
In all three lower layers of the atmosphere, one can see gravity waves. These are symmetrical, patterned lines that exist in the clouds in the troposphere and stratosphere and have been linked to increased risk of tornados development by a NASA project called GRITs - GRavity Wave Interactions with Tornados. In the mesosphere, these waves appear as a large bulls-eye shaped pattern visible in faint aurora, or in airglow.
In the magnetosphere, we see weakening. In fact, if the earth does not receive enough flare radiation, the magnetosphere simply weakens and more and more outer cosmic radiation comes in through the poles. When we are hit with an energetic flare, the particles become heated and excited, and the magnetosphere -- and all lower-atmospheric layers, can breath a sigh of relief. Weather is often chaotic during periods of low flaring as atmospheric collapse causes an increase in the strength and number of pressure convergences.
Here is an example of solar effects on weather: today is September 5th, 2014. The earth, a dipole magnet, is returning to a neutral axis position - not a tilted position as winter or summer. This means that we are going to be more affected by solar activity. We have not only seen strong convergence in the Midwest for days following a transequatorial coronal hole of moderate power, but we also saw a raise in seismicity - the solar pole experienced instability and we observed volcanic activity in Iceland, then Papua, and Iceland again as the charged particles streaming from the sun waned back to positive charge. There were an extreme increase of gravity waves and several instances of undulatus clouds in Iowa, mesospheric gravity waves photographed in a South Dakota, and stormy weather everywhere in the Midwest.
Expect to see activity on the sun rise for the new month or so, and then begin cycle 24's final descent towards minimum, where surprisingly some of the strongest flares occur.
My hypothesis on why we may not see much flaring is an increase in coronal hole size and occurrence, which could be due to so many outside influences it's hard to even fathom. When coronal holes are on the sun, there is less hot gas to enter the vortex of active regions and therefore less to be ejected,
The sunspots are much shorter in duration. Normally, sunspots last about 30 days. This cycle, they seem to last about 3 days. So, it is a much weaker cycle. This does not mean that the solar flares are weaker, just the overall sunspot count and duration. Much weaker than the previous cycles. Don't seem to hear much about this aspect of it.
The sunspot numbers are 1/2 of those from a normal cycle. An extended cycle is also a very weak one. Similarly, the solar zonal flow for cycle 25 has yet to appear. This means a very long cycle 24.
Our reports come from NASA, NOAA, and SDO. Thus far, March has certainly been active with Sunspot AR1429. This makes sense as the next solar maximum is expected in the 2013-2014 time frame. In terms of the overall cycle, NASA experts believe it will be a "below-average cycle" with less than your historically normal number of sunspots. However, you are correct in saying that "weak" is not an accurate description. Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather.
This is one of the best articles we have read on solar activity and long-range weather. Very complete and 100% accurate. Indeed, the developments of 2011 are confirmation of fading spots according to L&P theory, so the American Astronomical Society apparently thinks it may be worse than Dalton, calling it a possible second Maunder Minimum! Solar cycle 25 and beyond could be greatly delayed or not happen at all! "If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we'll see for a few decades," Hill said. "That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth's climate."
As we wait for the 3rd brutal winter in a row the question is "How much worse will they get?" Sound the alarm to all the world: LITTLE ICE AGE is coming. In another stunning development, the sun had no sunspots yesterday! The whole world should stand in awe. I assure you that here at Mor Electric Heating we are VERY closely following how bad the winters will get.
I agree and wonder if this spring,the coldest I can remember,is related to this.I'm not a fan of cold weather and hope not but it's looking like it will be colder the rest of my life.


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