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Dreaming of El Niño Winter

Photo Credit
NOAA
Written By: James J. Garriss Weather Contributor

I promised several readers last week that I would write about winter.

There is nothing like a heat wave to make you dream of crisp cool winter days and quiet drifts of snow. (Ok, Californians, I know you dream of 72˚ weather and enough rain that you don’t have to water the still blossoming garden.)

If, as most climate experts expect, we have an El Niño, winter might be a bit weird.

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Click to expand. Satellite pictures show how El Niños develop. SOURCE: NOAA.

Basically, an El Niño (Spanish for “Little Boy) occurs when the Tropical Pacific is unusually warm, more than 0.5˚C or 0.9˚F hotter than average. It heats the air above it, which allows the atmosphere to hold more moisture. Air pressure changes and that changes wind patterns. The unusual warmth lasts for months. Since the warm area is hundreds of thousands of square miles in size, it usually changes weather around the Pacific Rim and throughout the tropics.

El Niños move. The warmer water drifts east, while new warm water wells up in the center of the Pacific. Eventually the warm water crashes into the west coast of South America, around Ecuador. From there, it drifts north along the West Coast until it is off the coast of California. Warmth shifts north in the West and winds carry it inland. Meanwhile, the Pacific jetstream is shifted north and the southern tier of states wallow in water. (Good news for Texas!)

Click to expand. El Niños bring warmer weather north and cooler weather south. SOURCE: NOAA.

El Niños normally make the northern states and Canada warmer and the southern states and Mexico wetter. Confusing, isn’t it!

Unfortunately, for my Ohio readers, parts of the Midwest have less snow, which means things stay dry.

Of course, El Niño isn’t the only pattern that shapes winter. If an Arctic Oscillation is in a negative mood, it will be cold. The Arctic Oscillation is the king of winter, and a “little boy” cannot fight a king.

So, if you love shoveling snow off your sidewalks, this winter may disappoint you. If you like cool but not frigid weather, El Niño may be your best friend.

Climate Science
About The Author
James J. Garriss

James J. Garriss

Weather Contributor

With an academic background in international business, James is a writer, editor and researcher for Browning Media LLC, helping to present accurate climatological projections for a myriad of U.S. and ...
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Comments

<span>Michelleurf</span> Fri, 08/10/2012 - 12:40
Ok, gotta be honest, I would like lots and lots of snow and REALLY cold temps......I've had enough of this "mild winter" stuff.... The bugs this spring were beyond awful because we had NO really good, frigid days to kill 'em off last winter......the gnats were the worst! Plus, I just love snow and cold.....living in central IL, I get all the extremes of weather - from stifling heat to well-below-zero, from this awful drought to massive floods.....but I miss the storms and the blizzards - we just don't get those much anymore...... we haven't had a decent thunderstorm in two years now......and I don't even remember the last tornado warning- (not that I'm wanting to get hit w/ one of THOSE....but the weather leading up to it is amazing.... LOL)
<span>Blacjaguar</span> Fri, 08/10/2012 - 12:39
I live in Massachusetts right now. I JUST started to learn how to snowboard in March 2011, right at the end of the season, so it was slushy and rainy. This 2011-2012 season...the WHOLE SEASON was slushy and rainy! Ski places were closing left and right for entire days, losing money, and I lost TONS of practice time!!! I'd love a mild winter this year, but not SO mild that the snow that the ski places are making just melts right off the mountains. Well, no matter what, there's going to be a major New England blizzard on December 11, because my first baby is due then, and that's just how luck works!! :-) :-) :-)
<a title="View user profile." href="/author/james-j-garriss">James J. Garriss</a> Mon, 08/13/2012 - 10:55
Congratulations! Here's hoping that the snow comes after you and the baby are safely home.
<span>Wayne Ranieri</span> Wed, 08/22/2012 - 19:11
hi evelyn i familiar with the browning newsletter and remember when your father was alive how he used the moon as an iimportant part in tidal forces effecting the planet thanks wayne
<span>V. Boyd70</span> Fri, 08/10/2012 - 04:19
Before last winter, we had stable cold weather patterns in the winter. The grounds stayed frozen, snowfall fell at the right time, and our lakes and ponds were solid. Even with el nino winters, they were still winter like. You never had to worry about warm winter days budding trees up early then got ruined by a bite of reality in April with subfreezing cold snaps and snow. Now its like, whats a winter? Do they still exist? Honestly, I just want a winter like we had before this year. Do you think we should still have more of a winter than last? even with the el nino in place. (northeast) Come on winter, we need you here! Warm winters cause nothing but trouble. This year proved that, we all count on our winters
<a title="View user profile." href="/author/james-j-garriss">James J. Garriss</a> Fri, 08/10/2012 - 23:00
We had an almost record breaking positive NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). When that happens, the cold Arctic air remains trapped in the North. Now the NAO is mostly neutral or positive. I don't expect it will be as abnormally warm for a second year in a row.
<span>Jillian B.</span> Thu, 08/09/2012 - 17:07
My perfect winter would be snowy but not too cold; but if it is going to be unusually warm (some days near or above freezing) it might as well be dry-nothing is worse than rain/freeze/ice, rain/freeze/ice, over and over! Here in MN we saw a lot of that the past two years. Nightmarish roads! I love snow but I hate ice.
<a title="View user profile." href="/author/james-j-garriss">James J. Garriss</a> Mon, 08/13/2012 - 10:52
I'm with you on hating ice, especially on the roads. A spinning car is no fun.
<span>Bobbi A S.</span> Fri, 08/10/2012 - 18:28
100% with you on that. Im all for a cold winter but i dont want frigid either. I live in the midwest and im sick of it being 100 degrees in the summer. All we had was icy roads everyday this year in the winter. Not as much snow but we sure did have enough ice on the roads to last us all season. When your driving to go to work at 7:00 am in the pitch black you dont know whats on these roads! Even if its 30-35 degrees in the daytime all that water turns into pure solid ice at night. Snow is fine but ice is what gets me worrying. People in the deep south just dont know what a nightmare winter can be sometimes
<span>Brenda Lynn</span> Wed, 08/08/2012 - 16:36
El Nino is my bestfriend! La Nina is mean because she made this years weather so bad. Im not asking for a nasty frigid winter anyway. Im in Virginia and I just dream of a nice cool December day with temps in the upper 30s-40s (not 20s!) and maybe get a few inches of snow enough to make it a winter wonderland outside. Then January and February can be a little milder with a few flurries here or there. Not as warm as last winter!! but mild days with cold, frosty nights. That would be my perfect winter